The Future Will Not Look Like The Past

I attended the Munk Debate on Friday that included Henry Kissinger. The resolution was that the 21st century would belong to China. Given what I heard, I wanted to share with you what I thought the most plausible vision of the future is.

The global organization of the future will be much different from that of the last fifty years. The future will not look like the past. Those who think that it will are going to be the most disappointed.

Manufacturing will not support most of the middle class citizens of the developed world. There still are new manufacturing jobs being created in America but they are not the semi skilled ones of the past but the high skilled ones of the future (e.g. CNC, skilled trades, 3D printers).

There will be no global superpower. The United States, although it will remain powerful, is on the wane. The US is 300 million strong and has a long history of strong alliances and multilateral leadership. China is on the rise, but will not be powerful enough to dominate billions of other industrialized citizens in the West, Japan, Russia, and India. The world of today is not the post World War 2 World where the United States was the lone industrialized nation left unravaged which allowed it to create a large, easy middle class and global hegemonic domination. We are now living in a competitive, globalized age, and as much as some may want to go back, there is no single politician or business leader who can accomplish this.

The new world will be one of many populous, powerful, industrialized nations. The challenge will be to adapt international organizations (such as the IMF and WTO) to accommodate the rising status of developing countries. They will have to be given a greater stake in organizations which they did not build but will need to participate in, and likely change. The West will no longer be able to tackle global issues by first deciding on a course of action and then presenting it to the rest of the World as a finished package. Everyone will have to be involved in solving tomorrows problems from the beginning, or else fail spectacularly.

Why Houses Suddenly Cost a Million Dollars

Why are houses so expensive? I think there are four major reasons.

1) Urbanization: in 1940, 50% of Canada’s population lived in urban areas. Today more than 80% do. Today nearly half of all Canadians live in the three largest metro areas. This means that there are more people vying for less land. The competition leads to higher property prices. With millions of people wanting to live in small areas, prime locations must go at a much higher premium.

2) Dual incomes: the rise of dual income households since the 1970s has meant increased household incomes. This has allowed households to carry larger and larger mortgages.

3) Low interest rates: between foreign investment from globalization and the action of central banks, interest rates are at historic lows. Consumers can take out larger mortgages for the same monthly payment.

4) Longer mortgage terms: thanks to medical technology life expectancy has increased by more than 30 years since 1920. This means that people can work longer. Banks have responded to this by offering people longer mortgage terms. With longer the terms a mortgage can be much larger yet still have the same monthly payment.

In summary, there are two main groups of factors at work: increased competition (caused primarily by urbanization) and the increased ability of households to carry larger mortgages (due to dual incomes, lower borrowing costs and longer mortgage terms).

With home ownership usually seen as being one of the central characteristic of the middle class, the rising cost of homes and the stagnating of incomes that has happened since the 1970s, it seems that today more young people are at risk of falling out of the middle class. Furthermore, with larger mortgages current homeowners are more sensitive to calamity from increases in interest rates, with only a small increase causing the monthly payment to go up dramatically.

Pictures from the ROM: Chopin, Oil and Paper Dresses

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In 1849 note paper was expensive. That’s why Frédéric Chopin re-worked this piece over an earlier version. You can see where a section was scratched out on the left-hand side.

 

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A picture of a tire yard from the Edward Burtynsky exhibit on oil. The exhibit is a feast for the eyes, full of many large, photographic prints. It explores the full life-cycle of oil, from extraction from the environment, its use, subcultures made possible by oil it (suburbanites, nascar fans, bikers, etc), the remains (tire yards, oil tanker and aviation scrap yards) and the possible end of the age of abundant oil.

 

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An Inuit sculpture of the sea goddess, from the Water exhibit. I find it interesting how–although perhaps not surprisingly–cultures that exist in the harshest environments evolved the closest relationships to them.

 

Paper dresses in the Textiles exhibit. The exhibit explains that in the 1960s paper dresses became a fad. They were seen as being modern canvasses that could be printed on, were trendy, disposable and ephemeral. They could be sold anywhere (like in grocery store line-ups) and could be shortened using a pair of scissors. And, apparently “wear and tear created sexual tension.” Oh, the sixties. Christian Dior even released a paper dress (as can be seen in the second picture of the gallery). Too bad that because they were made of paper they did not drape at all, and hence did not look good when worn.

 

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I have included this picture purely for its entertainment value. The best part about this creature is that it needed someone else’s help to be able to turn around to get into the elevator.

 

My Favorite Sights in Florence

Background

The medieval period, which followed the collapse of the classical period, was characterized by a lower standard of living, technological decline,  and intense Church control. Christianity, in the middle ages, taught people that only the afterlife was of real importance. The result was that art did not need to be realistic or naturalistic, and there was little emphasis put on the material progress of society. A monk’s life, spent in prayer and withdrawn from the world, was seen as the most noble existence.

The Renaissance, an artistic and cultural movement, started in Northern Italy in the 14th century. It was launched by the rediscovery of ancient Greek and Roman manuscripts in the vaults of Church. The reading of the works of Cicero introduced a radically new conception of the noble life: that of civic engagement. Cicero argued that there had to be politically involved citizen that would fight (against tyranny) for the common good. The ancient works of philosophy, architecture and engineering were also discovered and spurned a technological leap forward. There was a renewed interest in the physical world: in natural looking art, methods of human governance, scientific understanding and technological innovation.

Florence was the center of the Early Renaissance (before it moved to Rome and became the High Renaissance). Northern Italy in the 14th century was beginning to be dominated by the rule of various tyrants. Florence, with its new found belief in civic liberty, fought to defend the remaining communal cities from tyrannical rule. This culminated in 1402 when the tyrant of Milan nearly took control of Florence. The city was only saved by his untimely death due to illness.

The textile trade in the Mediterranean made Florence very wealthy. The cities elite set about showing off this wealth by building palaces and filling them with Renaissance art. It is tempting to see the Renaissance as a complete break with the Medieval period. However, I don’t believe this is the case. Renaissance artists used classical techniques and knowledge to tell a predominately Christian story. But no longer was God depicted in an otherworldly way. Rather he was depicted in an intimately human way, with a natural human form and recognizably human emotions: Christ on the cross instead of Christ in heaven.

My Favorite Sights

1. Bargello Museum. Here you can see Donatello’s David and St. George. St. George is one of my favorite pieces of Renaissance art. In St. George you can see Florence’s view of itself. A young knight. Vigilant. Watching the horizon. Ready to defend the communes. The museum also contains many other great statues, and the bronze reliefs of The Sacrifice of Isaac. The reliefs were part of a competition between Lorenzo Ghiberti and Filippo Brunelleschi for who would create the baptistry doors, the famous Gates of Paradise.

2. Palazzo Medici Riccardi. The palace itself is very interesting. It was built for Cosimo de’ Medici. He wanted it to be impressive without being ostentatious. The grand salon contains a magnificent fresco. The most important reason to go here, however, is to Journey of the Magi to Bethlehem fresco cycle in the Medici’s private chapel. The fresco gives us another insight into how the Florentines viewed themselves. In the fresco, the Medici family and other Florentine aristocrats were portrayed in the place of the Three Wise Men, journeying to see the newborn Christ.

3. San Lorenzo. All in one place (although in three separate tickets) you can see the Laurentian Library, San Lorenzo Church and the Medici Chapel. The Laurentian Library contains a comprehensive collection of Greek and Latin manuscripts (from the 10th-15th centuries), the very books that were so pivotal in launching the Renaissance. The library also contains the famous vestibule designed by Michelangelo and the expansive reading room. San Lorenzo is one of Florence’s oldest churches. The Medici Chapel is made up of two buildings. The Chapel of the Princes is an impressive dome worth seeing. The New Sacristy by Michelangelo is one of the most intricately designed and proportioned buildings I have ever seen. It is small but it is truly a gem, and a must see, in my opinion.

4. Duomo Museum. This contains the original of the awe-inspiring Gates of Paradise by Lorenzo Ghiberti. It also contains Donatello’s heart wrenching Mary Magdalene. The museum has other statues by Donatello and Michelangelo, as well as, models of the Duomo created by Brunelleschi himself.

5. Brancacci Chapel. This chapel has another very important fresco cycle in it by Masolino and Filippo Lippi. The fresco is significant because it is a product of the very early Renaissance. The figures have a chunky and substantial appearance very different from the lithe figures of the Medieval period. This is because the artists who painted them had taken their inspiration from Roman statues. This influence can also be seen in the dramatic poses and gestures of the figures.

6. Orsanmichelle. This was once the headquarters of many of the guilds in Florence. In an attempt to outdo each other the various different guilds commissioned a number of statues. Reproductions of those statues are still on display outside. The statues are barely elevated above the street and are very intimate.

7. Science Museum. See the cartographic instruments, maps and globes which made the textile trade possible, and paid for the Renaissance art. You can see the telescope that Galileo used to see the surface of the moon and discover the moons of Jupiter.

Of course you should see th Uffizi gallery, Michelangelo’s David and the Duomo and baptistry. In many ways I find the art listed above more interesting than these. The works of the early Renaissance have an intimacy and sheer humanity that is not matched by the later works. Donatello’s St. George and Mary Magdalene, and the statues of the Orsanmichelle were made for the common citizenry of Florence. There is an immediacy to these works which starts to fade in the High Renaissance that took place in Rome. I think you can start to see this in Michangelo’s David, originally positioned on a high pedestal in front of the Palazzo Veechio. It is sublime, but it is also lofty, towering above the average the citizen. Art became more down-to-Earth in the early Renaissance but then, once again, starts to become more transcendent in the High Renaissance.

The enduring legacy of the Renaissance was, for better or worse, to put modern man back at the center of his own universe. The realistic image of man in the studied, natural world. It is hard to walk down the street without seeing a human figure on a billboard or a face on the front of a magazine. This seems natural to us but it was far from normal in the middle ages.